1. Write the idea as a set of claims
An idea feels like one thing, but it is really several claims that all have to be true. Write them down in one sentence each:
- Who has the problem (a specific person, not “small businesses”).
- What the problem costs them today, in time, money or risk.
- What they do about it now, including doing nothing.
- What you would sell, and for how much.
- How they would hear about you.
2. Find the riskiest claim
Rank the claims by two questions: how badly does the business break if this is false, and how little evidence do you have for it? The claim that scores highest on both is the one to test first.
It is usually not “can I build it”. For most software ideas the riskiest claims are that the problem is painful enough to pay for, and that you can reach the people who have it.
3. Design the cheapest test that could prove you wrong
A good test has a pass mark decided in advance, so you cannot explain away a bad result afterwards. Some tests that cost days rather than months:
- Problem interviews: ask ten people about the last time the problem happened. Do not describe your solution.
- A landing page with a price and a “pre-order” or “join the waitlist” button, shown to people who have the problem.
- A manual version: deliver the result by hand for three customers before automating anything.
- A pre-sale: ask for payment or a signed letter of intent. Money is stronger evidence than compliments.
4. Talk to customers without leading them
People are kind, and kindness produces false positives. Ask about what they have already done, not what they would do. “Tell me about the last time this happened” and “what did you try?” give facts. “Would you use this?” gives politeness.
Write down their exact words. The phrases customers use for the problem are the words your website should use later.
5. Decide: continue, change or stop
Compare the result with the pass mark you set. If the claim held, move to the next riskiest one. If it failed, change one thing (the customer, the problem or the offer) and test again. Stopping an idea after two weeks is a good outcome compared with stopping it after a year.
Keep a short record of every test: the claim, the method, the result and the source. It stops you re-testing the same thing and it is the most honest progress report you can give a co-founder or mentor.
Common mistakes
A few patterns show up again and again:
- Testing with friends instead of people who have the problem.
- Counting sign-ups from people who were never asked to pay.
- Building “just a small version” first, which quietly becomes the product.
- Moving the pass mark after seeing the result.
Last updated by the Seerist team.